Know when the forecast disagrees with the market.

Weather Edge compares official National Weather Service high-temperature forecasts with live prediction-market prices on daily high-temp markets, and flags the bands where the odds look off.

See today's live board โ†“

๐Ÿ“ก Official forecasts

NWS gridpoint forecasts for each settlement station, refreshed continuously.

๐Ÿ“Š Market prices

Public Kalshi order-book prices for every temperature band (read-only).

๐Ÿ”” Edge alerts

Model probability vs. implied price; get pinged when the gap crosses your threshold.

Live demo board

Model: normal distribution centered on the NWS forecast high (ฯƒ adjustable). Market prob = mid of yes bid/ask. Edge = model โˆ’ market. Informational only, not financial advice.

Pricing

Free

$0

  • Live board, 1 city
  • Delayed 15 min

Pro

$19/mo

  • All 7 cities
  • Email + push alerts
  • Custom edge thresholds

Desk

$79/mo

  • Everything in Pro
  • Polymarket weather markets
  • API + webhooks

โš ๏ธ Placeholder: payments are not live. No card will be charged.

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